On the subject of...

Election Cycle

22
Jun
2017

Analysing Turnbull

Today Andrew Bolt has made a scathing attack on Turnbull and has extended that to the Liberal Party itself for allowing Turnbull to get away with it. He suggests that, even if Abbott replaced Turnbull, the left that now exists of that party is so strong that he would be unable to repair it. Genuine supporters of liberalism would therefore have to decide where they would vote at the next election. I suspect a goodly number have already decided.
18
Jun
2017

Bolt on Turnbull, Important New Rebutalls of Climate Policy, AFR Off-Track

Next week is the last for Parliament before it takes a month’s break. Turnbull will be trying to divert attention away from “difficult” issues, such as the Finkel Blueprint, Turnbull’s attack on Trump during a speech at the Winter ball, and the publication of a book in which the author claims that Turnbull told him he joined the Liberals only because Labor wouldn’t have him(see attached Bolt on Turnbull & Finkel).
15
Jun
2017

Leaked Turnbull Speech at Winter Ball Keeps Crisis Going

Earlier this evening I circulated a Commentary suggesting that unless Turnbull recognises the many deficiencies in the Finkel report there is likely to be a political crisis within the Coalition. The Commentary concluded as follows“Turnbull’s responsibility for having Blueprint produced, and his initial quasi-approval of it, means that he has created a split within the Coalition by effectively imposing a tax on carbon. Although the Blueprint is not exactly the same as what Labor wants, their bipartisan offer to get together confirms that Turnbull is on the right track for them. In his article today Andrew Bolt (see attached) asks why is Turnbull “making the Liberals dance to the warmist tune of Labor and the Greens? Is this why Liberal supporters and donors back the party — to produce not just record debts and spending, but global warming schemes that will just make the poor too scared to turn on the heating this winter? While Turnbull is there, there’s no point to the Liberal Party. The Liberals must get rid of Turnbull or he’ll get rid of them”. For full text see attached.
30
May
2017

Polling on the Budget, Terrorists Sources Not Recognised, Nor are Climate Changes

Turnbull’s further shift to the left (where is the middle now?) didn’t get any substantive support from the latest Newspoll, with the TPP percentages (47/53) unchanged. Some say that there was no budget “bounce” but the fact that it didn’t rise one bit sends a bad message on both the budget and Turnbull’s leadership even though his satisfaction ratio rose very slightly (so did Shorten’s). One commentator said that “the trend is set and it favours Shorten”.
16
May
2017

Nonsense Claims that More Revenue Needed

Yesterday’s Commentary referred to three things which stood out from the post Budget polling – Labor remains 6 percentage points ahead, the very low net satisfaction ratios of both leaders suggest that voters want a change of leaders, and only 19% feel better off after the budget. Today we learn that, in “selling the budget” yesterday, Turnbull claimed that Newspoll showed there is majority support for the levy on the banks and the increase in the Medicare levy. He also claimed that, because the Senate has blocked spending cuts, “we obviously need to raise more revenue” (see Turnbull Defends Budget). This is absolute balderdash.
15
May
2017

Polling Result for Budget

There are three things which stand out from today’s polling: Both Newspoll and the Fairfax/Ipso poll show Labor the same distance ahead of the Coalition with Labor holding a lead of 6 percentage points on a TPP basis (53/47) in each poll; Neither leader has a favourable net satisfaction ratio in Newspoll, with Turnbull on 33/53 and Shorten on a 32/54 satisfied to dissatisfied ratios; The total who feel worse off after the budget (45%) is less than after the 2014 budget under Abbott (69%) in Newspoll. But more feel worse off than after each of the last three years of Labor’s budgets. Note that only 19% feel better off and 36% are uncommitted after this year’s budget. The age group which feels worst off after this year’s budget is the 35-49ers, with over 50s feeling least worse off ;
12
May
2017

Why Coalition Presented Labor Budget, Why Trump Sacked Comey

In his budget reply Shorten rightly claimed that the Turnbull government did not present a Labor budget: he said this because his presentation in fact took the Turnbull budget further down the socialist road (see attached Shorten’s Budget Reply). Although no estimates were given of Shorten’s Labor budget, there can be no doubt that it would mean higher spending and taxes. Those taxes would moreover be concentrated on alleged “high” income groups and would extend to emissions of CO2. In a sense, Turnbull provided Shorten with an opportunity to take a step further.
30
Apr
2017

Short Time Span for Replacement of Turnbull, McCitrick on Paris Agreement, Australian Defence Against Nuclear Missiles

Trump’s agreement to meet with Turnbull this coming week (an appointment which appears to have taken longer than expected) provides an opportunity to confirm the importance of the US alliance in the context of celebrating the vital role played by the US in the defeat of the Japanese in the Coral Sea battle 75 years ago in 1942 (see press release on meeting). It also means Turnbull will obtain more photo-ops. He will doubtless also attempt to convey to the Australian electorate that his meeting with Trump reflects another acknowledgment by him of the view of right-wingers.
24
Apr
2017

Slight Improvement in Newspoll, March for Science

Today’s Newspoll has improved the Coalition’s polling from 47/53 to 48/52 on a TPP basis but this still leaves it in an unwinnable position and, as Crowe points out, there is no improvement in the primary vote of 36 (Labor 35). Further, as Andrew Bolt argues, unless the continued division between Turnbull and Abbott is overcome the Coalition is unlikely to restore its polling to a winnable position. Bolt’s solution is for Turnbull to go. Note also that, while ticking the citizen tests, Bolt seeks a more meaningful approach by attacking the groups which portray an incorrect picture of Australia (see attachments).
18
Apr
2017

Controlling Islamic Extremism & Handling N Korea

As mentioned in yesterday’s Commentary, the publication in The Australian of reports on the treatment of wives by Muslim men prompted me to circulate a Gatehouse report on various incidents involving Muslims in March in the UK. I also sent a letter to The Australian suggesting “the wives issue” raised a question about allowing the continued operation of Hitzb ut-Tahrir in Australia. That letter is below with two others on the issue, albeit one of which suggests that it would be discriminatory to point the finger at any particular group, including Muslims, which uses violence against women.