Why No Dangerous Rise in Temperatures Threatens
Talk given March 28 to the Orrong Rd group of the University of the Third Age
Attached is a talk I gave today to a University of Third Age group in Orrong Rd. With the help of graphs (also attached) composed by Tom Quirk and (earlier) by Bill Kininmonth, the document updates the arguments and data that reject the dangerous warming thesis. Contrary to Garnaut, it is clear that developments since his report of 2008 considerably weaken the case of the believers in the dangerous warming threat.
There was a crowd of about 80 and only two who offered any queries but not in a hostile way. From the reactions during question time and afterwards, I think many attendees liked the graphs and drew the right conclusions. I took care to go through them slowly.
My concluding section reads as follows:
“I summarise my assessment as follows. There are fundamental faults in the statistical and scientific analyses used to justify the need for early comprehensive mitigatory action by governments; claims of a consensus on the IPCC science have no credibility and account is not taken of the long history of faulty analyses by scientists; that examination of the temperature and CO2 concentrations data indicate that the green house effect on temperatures to 2100 is likely to be much less than the IPCC (and other believers) predict; that there is no substantive evidence of threats from rising sea levels or meltings of sea ice in the Arctic or Antarctic; that there is no evidence of any significant change in average rainfall or that droughts and other severe weather events are likely to occur more frequently. In conclusion, my submission is that the best policy is to adapt to changes in climate and to leave that mainly to the private sector”.
Please feel free to use any of the material.