End of the Honeymoon?
This morning’s Bolt Report started with a declaration that the Turnbull honeymoon is over. Not surprising. But what was a bit off key was that the ABC Insiders seemed to reach a similar conclusion, although without saying so specifically. Has Scott told the ABC’s Cassidy that Turnbull has ceased to be minister of communications and is now in danger of applying his fairness policy to the ABC as PM? We even experienced an interview with a Shorten who argued that Turnbull should bring down a budget in May.
The Correct Understanding of Islam -And What Should be Done
Following the attacks on Paris by Islamic terrorists, ordinary activity in the city of Brussels has almost stopped because of the acknowledgement by the authorities that there is a serious risk of an attempt to repeat there the Paris attacks. Meanwhile, two copy attacks in Northern Nigeria by the Islamist group Boko Haram added 47 killed to the many already murdered there.
Some Things are Ruled Out, Some Not
We have now experienced two meetings/summits of world leaders following the Paris terrorist attacks last Friday, one by the G20 in Turkey and one in Manila by those involved in the negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (still to be approved by the US Congress). Although there was a general recognition at both meetings that the Islamic State constituted a powerful force and agreement that “something needs to be done” to combat it, no specific combined response was agreed, except that whatever else might be done boots on the ground are ruled out.
Islamic Problem – Some Implications from French Attack
French Premier Hollande has responded to the killings and/or serious wounding of seemingly over 200 people in Paris (perhaps 450 killed or wounded in total) by declaring war on IS and closing French borders (presumably to migrants from other European countries). Just what this means in practice remains to be seen: with about 6mn Muslims in France the government seems unlikely to change its “philosophy” that terrorism does not have religious motives and that what “we” are dealing with are extremists operating contrary to the Islamic religion. IS is said to be doing that.
Some Implications of Changing Leaders
Many who support the Coalition but have serious doubts about Turnbull becoming PM have nonetheless accepted his appointment because they believe he should defeat Labor at the next election whereas the belief was that Abbott had reached the point where he could not. On the surface that certainly appears to be the case, although the latest opinion poll of an improved 51/49 TPP taken after Turnbull’s appointment still suggests a close call if an early election (which some suggest) were to be held. Similarly, the Liberal win in the Canning by-election with a swing of “only” 6-7% to Labor does not suggest a Turnbull “bounce” (a 5% swing against the party holding the seat is “normal” in a by-election).
More Questions About Turnbull
It remains difficult to reach any firm conclusion about the implications of Turnbull’s acquisition of the Prime Ministership. As expected, the first opinion poll shows Turnbull as a Better PM than Shorten (62/38 %) - compared with the 42/58% under Abbott - and a lift in the TPP to 50/50 from 46/54 in the last Newspoll. But one might have expected an initial more favourable outcome for Turnbull.
Muslim Problem being Recognised
Yesterday’s Commentary drew attention to reports that indicated a significant proportion of the refugees to Europe (more strictly, to Germany) may be “economic” migrants using the refugee label and that opposition to an open door immigration policy appeared to be increasing there. I also referred to analyses by the non-partisan US think-tank Gatehouse Foundation suggesting the 6 million Muslims in Germany are heavily under the influence of an extremist group and that the problems arising from extensive cultural differences were not being recognised. This poses, I noted, a serious threat of a break-up of the EU and possible forcible internal resistance in Europe.
Refugees Surge Raises Serious Problems
The difficulties being experienced by refugees from Syria, Iraq and other Middle East countries in reaching Germany are not stopping the increasing attempts by individuals to take advantage of the free inflow which that country is allowing. Some are portraying Merkel as a saviour and there is pressure on other western countries to accept increased numbers.
Game On?
My Commentary yesterday drew attention to the apparent adoption of a more aggressive Coalition policy strategy and the publication by News Corp of detailed information on union activities. Today’s media exhibits remarkably different priorities, with Fairfax press and the ABC barely touching on either Coalition strategy or the Heydon issue and News Corp going full blast on unions and Labor.
Abbott Polling Down-Bolt on Labor’s Attack on Heydon, Shorten- C Change Debate
Today’s poll in Fairfax press shows the Coalition at 46/54 on a TPP basis, the same as in the previous poll, but Abbott is down one point at minus 24% on his net rating and Shorten is at minus 10%. In the Australian, Phillip Hudson notes that Howard had a similar experience after his first two years and suggests that it might help Abbott if he adopted a major reform strategy as Howard did by announcing a risky GST.