Some Implications of Changing Leaders
Many who support the Coalition but have serious doubts about Turnbull becoming PM have nonetheless accepted his appointment because they believe he should defeat Labor at the next election whereas the belief was that Abbott had reached the point where he could not. On the surface that certainly appears to be the case, although the latest opinion poll of an improved 51/49 TPP taken after Turnbull’s appointment still suggests a close call if an early election (which some suggest) were to be held. Similarly, the Liberal win in the Canning by-election with a swing of “only” 6-7% to Labor does not suggest a Turnbull “bounce” (a 5% swing against the party holding the seat is “normal” in a by-election).
Refugees Surge Raises Serious Problems
The difficulties being experienced by refugees from Syria, Iraq and other Middle East countries in reaching Germany are not stopping the increasing attempts by individuals to take advantage of the free inflow which that country is allowing. Some are portraying Merkel as a saviour and there is pressure on other western countries to accept increased numbers.
Coalition Needs Major Policy Initiative
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It is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Abbott can survive on the basis of existing policies and the way they are presented. After a period of public debate over the Royal Commission, during which Shorten and various unions were exposed as having behaved very poorly, Newspoll is still unchanged on a TPP basis (46/54) and Shorten remains Better PM (41/37). In addition, while 68% want the RC to continue, Heydon himself gets bad marks for his mishandling of the invitation to a Liberal Party function. Further, the support for the China FTA (only 43% and 22% uncommitted) indicates a failure to fully explain that it exposed virtually no risk from foreign-sourced labour ( Robb’s explanations yesterday on the ABC’s Insiders was excellent but he should have been more upfront earlier).
Increased Challenges Faced by Abbott -Responses Needed
As indicated by its failure to have the Senate re-instate the powers of the Australian Building & Construction Commission, and by anti-coal groups’s revealed use of legislation to stop coal projects and purporting thereby to protect “the environment”, the Abbott government is facing increased difficulties in implementing existing policies, let alone maintain policies which have hitherto been widely accepted as important to on-going development and employment. As Greg Sheridan points out (see “Shutting the door to growth” below), “Australia has created a public–political culture in which the avenues to block something from happening are endless”. More strictly, it is that certain groups, not Australia itself, which have created this culture and are now actively moving to apply it.
Far-right; C Polling Worsens; PC Draft Report; US-Iran Deal
What is Far-right? In the Weekend Australian Associate Ed John Lyons wrote what seemed to be an attack on groups which have... Read More
Islamic Penetration; Global Warming; Productivity Cn Report
In my 27 July Commentary I drew attention to the “discovery” that Islamic extremists have been preaching in religious programs at NSW government schools and to the announcement by Premier Baird of an audit and a suite of measures across 2,200 schools. I suggested that such preaching might well be occurring in other states too.
What a Lot of Talk About …
We seem to have been experiencing a lot of talk about domestic issues which are scarcely of the top order. Number one is the expenses incurred by Speaker Bishop, who as I have previously suggested acted irresponsibly. Her failure to acknowledge this and to apologise straight away, and Abbott’s failure to ensure that happened and to announce a review of the expenses provisions (it appears that Labor’s front bench has “over-spent” too), has put the Coalition in damage control and will likely lead to a further decline in polling...
Shorten at RC; Newspoll bad for Shorten & Abbott; Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Declares G Warming a “Non-Problem”
Shorten at Royal Commission Media commentary on the first day of Shorten’s appearance at the Royal Commission does not imply corrupt or... Read More
Labor at Precipice Edge
Islamic Terrorism Increases Further Reports yesterday of many deaths overseas from terrorist attacks in three places, including a beheading in France (see... Read More
Importance of Royal Cn increases – Obama’s Concedes Iran’s Nuke
Union Power & Shorten’s Fate Today’s AFR has published my letter (see below) criticising the “deal” Shorten made when heading the AWU... Read More