Tag

Malcolm Turnbull

6
Apr
2016
0

Turnbull Loses Coalition Lead in Newspoll

The latest Newspoll showing a negative TTP of 49/51 for the Coalition (see below) has sent the Turnbull government, and the Liberal Party itself, a clear message to fix the role being played by the current leadership. The poll includes a section indicating only 19% favoured allowing the States to impose an income tax. This does not necessarily rule out such a development in the future. But it confirms that the handling of the issue by Turnbull has been so bad that, as suggested in yesterday’s Commentary, it requires a major change in the role being played by him as PM.
3
Apr
2016
0

Turnbull’s State Income Tax Still Afloat

When Malcolm Turnbull announced that he would offer the States the opportunity to impose an income tax, he described it as one of the greatest potential reforms to Federation in ‘generations’... “this, we believe, is the only way that we can genuinely reform our Federation... It will give the states real financial autonomy”. But when the States rejected the offer, Turnbull initially described it as being “not there” now. Soon however it reappeared, first in the COAG Communique and then in Turnbull’s explanation (sic) of the reason for the rejection and the implication as he sees it.
1
Apr
2016
0

Turnbull on Federal State Relations

It is becoming more difficult by the day to guess what rationale is behind the limited policy announcements Malcolm Turnbull is starting to make. One interpretation of Turnbull’s latest announcement is that he reached a personal view that he needed to announce something new. That led to his decision to announce a “new” policy on federal-state relations without providing substantive detail because he thought that there would general agreement that something needed to be done to reduce the vertical fiscal imbalance between the Federal and State governments. And that there would be much discussion of the idea and praise for him for initiating it.
24
Mar
2016
0

Some Implications of Brussels

Some are asking why Brussels has experienced an act of terrorism which has killed over 30 and wounded over 250. The answer is simple. Belgium has a large Muslim population centred in Brussels and which includes a significant number of extremists committed to jihadist acts against both Westerners and Muslims who have not accepted jihadism. Belgium is also exposed to the an immigration policy within Europe which is almost a free go and, more recently, allows large numbers of refugees from Syria and Iraq who have included jihadists.
23
Mar
2016
0

Turnbull Decides Early Election & Budget

No sooner had the latest Newspoll been published (details are attached) with a 51/49 TPP in favour of the Coalition, but with the first negative net satisfaction ratio for Turnbull personally, than he announced an early return of Parliament to (again) consider two pieces of legislation on workplace relations and a double dissolution election on 2 July if the legislation is not passed this time by the Senate (of the two pieces of legislation, one has already been rejected twice and this rejection could be used to call a DD). This would be a considerably earlier election than the September/October months which Turnbull himself had previously foreshadowed.
16
Mar
2016
0

Turnbull Likely to Cease being PM

My letter published in today’s Financial Review (see below “Turnbull’s Elevation”) draws on a pretty damning critique of Turnbull by columnist Jennifer Hewett (see attached Hewett on Turnbull) who concludes that “The Government won't want anyone to be able to point out the real risk –that the Prime Minister Emperor has no policy clothes”.
11
Mar
2016
0

Savva’s Assessment of Abbott, Turnbull’s Visit to Mosque, C Change by Aus Institute

I circulated yesterday copies of articles by Andrew Bolt and Niki Savva discussing the Prime Ministership of Tony Abbott and the role played by Abbott’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin. I made strong criticism of the Savva comments, particularly that Abbott had performed worse than Rudd and the implication she left (without any supporting evidence) that he had slept with Credlin. I did not mention that I had previously written to The Australian criticising its handling of Savva comments, particularly by giving unwarranted attention to considerable amounts of what seemed to largely be gossip.
8
Mar
2016
0

Electoral Position, Defence & Budget Policies

Today’s Australian publishes an unchanged electoral position of the two major parties (TPPs of 50% each) but another reduction in Turnbull’s net satisfaction ratio. He is still well ahead of Shorten in the unchanged Better PM category (55/21). But the uncertainty about Coalition policy in various areas has been allowed by Turnbull to reach the point where an “early” election seems increasingly likely, with policies being unduly determined by electoral “demands” and Turnbull himself having a bigger say as to what is in the policies.