29
May
2018

Bad Newspoll for Coalition

In yesterday’s Commentary I suggested that, as since the last Newspoll Shorten’s performance has slipped and Turnbull’s has improved, this should result in an improvement in the Coalition’s polling in the imminent Newspoll. In the event the support for the Coalition dropped slightly on both primary votes and TPP.

Coalition Primary TPP
39-38 49-48
Labor 38-38 51-52

The poll also covered the Labor Leadership Preferences

Albanese 26 (up 3)
Plibersek 23 (Same)
Shorten 23 (Down 1)
Uncommitted 28 (Down 2)

I have written to The Australian about its interpretation of the poll as indicating that Shorten came out badly. In case it is not published the full text is below

Your analysis of Newspoll leaves something to be desired (“Newspoll: Voters snub Bill Shorten’s tax attack” 28/5). Sure, Shorten’s rating falls by one point to twenty-three and is three points lower than the Albanese rating. But that is in a field which has the highest rating of 28: this group is Uncommitted and it is bit much to conclude that voters have snubbed Shorten’s attack on tax cuts, particularly as 45 per cent of Labor voters oppose any such cut. Also, it would be surprising if Albanese is more sympathetic to company tax cuts. The major conclusion is that the Coalition has dropped a point on the all-important primary vote as well as on the TPP to 48/52. This occurred despite the claim that the budget was well received (it wasn’t), the more aggressive and wider attack on Shorten by Coalition ministers, and Shorten’s bad handling of dual citizenship was revealed. Yet Turnbull produced his the 33rd successive losing Newspoll at a time when he should have been on top. His continuance as leader now seriously risks the loss of the election, and a poor result in the five by-elections, to a party which threatens to be run by unions”.

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